New Jersey Giants (12-7) 'at' New England Patriots (15-3)

Don't read too much into the bookies making the Pats 4 (quickly slipping down to 3) point favourites in the Super Bowl. The idea is to get the money flowing, and the money that immediately came in on the Giants drove the spread down by a point immediately. That's because this game is, on paper, an even matchup, and I use that word carefully. Although the Pats have the better record, both these teams have made turnarounds. New England won 8 in a row after releasing Albert Haynesworth; the Giants have won five in a row since getting clobbering in a 'must-win' game by Washington, although had Tony Romo hit Miles Austin when he was wide-open for a first down, Dallas would have beaten New York and this would all be academic. And although the Pats' offense is the single most impressive unit in the game, the most you look at match-ups, the more they appear to favour the Giants.

Although it's true the game may be won or lost by the Giants' front four, this Patriots' O line is a better one, even with rookie Nate Solder at tackle and backup Dan Connolly at center, than the one that faced New York four years ago. The big reason for the Giants' recent renaissance is the return of Justin Tuck and Osi Umeniyora fully healthy; Tuck presents the greatest threat inside while Osi is the playmaker; think back to the Green Bay game, with Aaron Rodgers eyes lit up like a fruit machine as he spots Greg Jennings open, only to have Osi reach across a blocker for a strip. Plus Michael Boley is playing back to his old form at linebacker, and while Chase Blackburn may be limited physically, he understands the assignments of the mike backer and is generally where he should be. This is more or less a wash; but one or two big plays can turn that into a Giants' advantage.

It's also wrong to assume the Giants' never blitz. They will send five, with a DB often joining the rush, and it's usually very effective, because teams have schemed their protections against the four-man rush. It's never good business to send six against Brady, partly because he's so quick and partly because the Pats' receivers are very good at yards after the catch, so you don't want to stay in man to man.

However, you won't give up many huge gains to the Pats if you do, because they don't really have a downfield threat. And this is where the key matchups, on both sides of the ball, actually will be. I would not be surprised to see a lot of cover-three by both teams, and often with three safeties. The Giants will want to flood the middle of the field, take away the options inside the numbers to Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker. A real key is Gronk's injury. This is like losing Welker to the knee a couple of years ago, in that the Pats' whole O is based on the mismatches he creates. Go back to the 49ers game and notice that Vernon Davis beat both Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle in single coverage; but when he's stopped a yard short of a key first down they've got him over and under. Veteran Deon Grant is the third safety, and big enough to handle a hobbled Gronk, who is unlikely to run past, or even around anyone. This turns a big Pats' advantage into a slight edge to the Giants.

In this situation, you'd look for Deion Branch outside against Aaron Ross, who can be beaten deep; but Branch is not a burner. It would not be unreasonable to see Chad Ochocinco out there, trying to stretch the secondary out; Corey Webster and the cornerback currently known as Prince are better in man-coverage; and Prince might well take a split tight end man to man.

On the other side of the ball, the Pats' secondary is probably better in zone, though they don't have a playmaking safety, in fact probably haven't since Rodney Harrison's first year.

But with three quality wide receivers, two of whom can make plays on the kind of 'put it up and let my guy come down with it' balls Eli's willing to throw, I'd expect New England to try to contain the Giants' wides underneath. Devin McCourty for some reason lost the ability to run with receivers in his sophomore year, but playing safety, with the pass-catchers in front of him, he has been better (though they miss his tackling on the edges). Antwaun Molden and Sterling Moore are both waiver-wire guys, but I'd expect them to be the starting corners. Molden was actually a third-round pick by Houston in '08, and has good speed and strength but bad instincts; Moore lacks speed but has been very coachable.

I really doubt we'll see a lot of Julian Edleman in man coverage, though the Pats could go dime a bit to tempt the Giants into underneath passing to their tight ends and backs (note how much they've used Henry Hynoski in this late run). The Pats' linebackers have been good in coverage, and very good against passes from the backfield; the Giants defend those well also, in part because their linemen are so quick in pursuit. Unless the Pats cook up some coverages that confuse Eli, I'd call this another Giants' advantage, particularly playing on turf.

Since losing Andre Carter to injury, the Pats' front has actually played better: they've been willing to position Mark Anderson to sell-out to pass-rush, and he's actually come up with plays on the edge. But they haven't pushed the line of scrimmage well, except with Vince Wilfork, who has had an amazing season playing both tackle and end. The Pats' still use their backers a lot like you would in a 3-4, and Mayo and Spikes make lots of plays in the run game, while Ninkovich is really their only pass-rush threat besides Anderson. I can see them doing well against the Giants' run-game, but getting pressure on Eli's another story. Eli also responds to pressure well; he can find and hit a safety valve with a shovel from either hand, but he also throws balls up and gets plays with a remarkable consistency; I keep shaking my head recalling two sure picks which Dashon Goldson saved for the Giants by colliding with his teammate and letting the ball drop. The Giants O line has also played well, especially in this year's 'no holding' playoffs; it took David Baas neck-tying, bull-dogging, and hog-tying a rusher before a flag finally got thrown against them in the Niners game. This seems like another wash.

But the Pats could get some traction with their own running game. The Giants front defends very well, but if the Pats can spread the field and keep the Giants in nickle, they have been very effective out of the shotgun. Again, the loss of Gronk at full efficiency could be crucial; he is a good enough blocker to control Haloti Ngata in space, which was a revelation. But with a dodgy ankle this may be harder.

The overall problem for the Pats is that they are a precision timing offense, which depends on the short pass and the spread run to move the ball downfield. It should not be that difficult for the Giants to make plays that put them into third and long situations which reduce their options and make coverage easier. If Gronk is not 100% that throws the timing of the offense off, and overall this makes me fear the matchup. If you see Giants' tacklers grabbing his ankle and pulling, you'll know the stories about targeting Kyle Williams' head were all true. But the key is timing. Tom Brady has struggled most when his timing is thrown off—look at the 2008 Superbowl, where he forces some throws and doesn't take others, because the Giants' rush has got him guessing. Look at this season's Steelers' game, where Pittsburgh sold out against the short stuff and Brady had no reply. This to me is the moment where he has to step forward and put the offense on his shoulders.

Conversely, the Giants are a big play offense. Third and long is a convertible down for Eli and his receivers, and it is a danger down for the Pats secondary. I can see New England keeping the Giants runners and shorter pass game under control, but surrendering those third down conversions. That is where Eli has been most effective in the past five games, and we already know how good he is in chaos-time, the last few minutes of a close game. Neither team wants to see the other with a ball, and minute and a half to go, and needing one score to win.

If it comes down to kicking, each kicker missed five kicks during the season, and Gostkowski's got the stronger kickoffs, but Lawrence Tynes cock-up rating was 95.7, which is above average, while Gostkowski's was 81.9, slightly below average, as his misses were from shorter distances. Zoltan Mesko to me was the best punter in the AFC, while Steve Weatherford was completely overlooked, but put a phenomenal 45 of his 82 punts inside the 20, with six touchbacks. I don't have a calibration for punters, because I'm trying to figure out how to take field position into account, but both punters have kicked very well in the playoffs. The Pats' returners have been slightly better, but Danny Woodhead's fumble against the Ravens gives you pause; it's unlikely either team breaks a big return, partly because their special teams’ coverages are both good.

One of the things about a Super Bowl is the extended half-time, to allow Madonna the chance to infiltrate consciousnesses that had just managed to forget about her, also allows more teams to figure out their adjustments. Belichick's Pats are one of the best in the league at changing things at halftime and showing the opponent a different look, but that advantage is reduced somewhat by the extension. The Giants are more inclined offensively to stick with their strengths, and defensively to adjust coverage as necessary. This reflects, I think, Kevin Gilbride's strong point, which is faith in his playmakers, and Perry Fewell's skill at using his advantage up front.

As I said, I started the week like the bookies, making the Pats slight favourites, but as you can see I think I've made a stronger case for the Giants and their match-ups taking the day. In my mind (and I actually think in the minds of most of the audience) the Giants should actually be the favourites in this game, even though the Pats have the better record. When it comes to emotionally lifting a team, I think Tom Coughlin may have the advantage over Bill Belichick, but the 'kinder, gentler' approach we've seen from Bill this week has been exactly what Coughlin did four years ago. Last time I picked the Pats because they matched up better, Rod Woodson took the Giants, and the rest was history. This time, I'm going to go against my own analysis, figuring if I was wrong then I might be right now. Pick: Pats

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS: 2-0 PLAYOFFS: 7-3 REGULAR SEASON: 165-91