Each week through the 2009 season five NFL expert Mike Carlson will write for nfluk.com, giving his picks for each game of the week and providing an irreverent round up of all the latest news from around the NFL.

Happy New Year! All around the NFL, teams are writing tank-you notes to the Colts for tanking their game to the Jets, thereby gifting Newark with the fast track to a playoff spot. What it means will be any team that needs to win to get in, but also needs a loss by the Jets and/or anyone else, will have to watch NBC to find out if they're in, or what the seedings are. This will add dozens of viewers to NBC's ratings! With all the NFC places being sewn up, and only a possible bye week at stake, this means you have a few games where teams need to win just to keep hopes alive, and a lot of games being played only for pride. Who wants it more is a lousy way to handicap NFL games! This year, week 17 is truly a dartboard week.

The calls for legislating against what the Colts did are futile. First, teams have a legitimate interest in resting players, in giving back-ups experience, and trying to avoid injury before the playoffs. Second, in the absence of a visible tactic to propel a certain team into the playoffs, or into a certain seed and thus insure you play (or avoid) them, there's no specific concrete damage you can punish, unless you can prove the team was deliberately trying to lose (as has sometimes been alleged against teams in position for a top draft pick, though in most cases nowadays teams try to avoid such situations). The league rules require you to make a legitimate effort to win at all times (maybe they could wonder when Jim Zorn punted down 17-0 with six minutes left against Dallas). But the effect of Indy turning a 15-10 lead into a 29-10 loss (with the lead-taking Jet TD being a Curtis Painter fumble recovered by old friend Marques Douglas) is to revamp the playoff picture in one sour stroke.

What I don't understand, from the Colt point of view, is the rush to rest, since they were already guaranteed a bye week in the playoffs; you need to realise rest may be trumped by the rust factor. The real worry, of course, is injuries. Don't forget that Bill Polian's Bills lost Cornelius Bennett in a meaningless final week game in 1999, and I think that haunts him still. It's prudent to give guys time to heal, rather than have them play hurt, in meaningless games, or to protect brittle players like Bob Sanders, whom you don't want to risk. But Peyton Manning, who's never missed a game, even when he was hurt, like at the start of last season? Plus, you have to wonder if you really think a 15-10 lead against a Rex Ryan defense is the proper place to decide to blood Curtis Painter with NFL experience? In fact, having given up a lazy TD on a kickoff return, you'd think you'd want your offense to get you back into a more comfortable lead before handing over to the Pine Bros.

What I think was going on was that the Colts really wanted to rest players against Buffalo, and were thus happy to risk their unbeaten mark against the Jets, rather than go into the Bills' game 15-0 and wind up having to play an ugly game against a fired-up team for real. Well, they got their wish, but as the saying goes, you need to be careful what you wish for.

Indianapolis (14-1) at Buffalo (5-10): Bill Polian Bowl! The remarkable thing is the legacy of the Polian Bills. Barring his injury paranoia, the Colts would still be undefeated now, and the two hottest teams going into the playoffs are the Chargers and Cowboys; San Diego run by former Bills' scout AJ Smith (and before that John Butler) and Dallas coached by former Bills' coach Wade Phillips. Now tell me how you pick this one? Sure the Colts are likely to Painter Buffalo red, if not red zone, but the Bills are just as likely to counter with Brian Brohm again. Checkmate! The bookies have Buffalo as more than a touchdown favourites. How weird is that? Pick: Colts

New Orleans (13-2) at Carolina (7-8): Steve Smith called the pain of a broken arm a 'minor nuisance' and said he'd 'die before he dropped that pass', referring to the TD catch against the Giants. I wonder what Roy Williams said after his first drop against the Skins? It was almost as funny as watching Tom Benson celebrate Garrett Hartley's field goal to beat the Bucs, until someone told Tom that the kick had missed. If I'm Sean Payton, I'm looking at a bye week off anyway, so I play this game for real to try to get my momentum back. But stopping the run is a problem, and the Panthers are running the ball well. The Panthers, even without Smith, are seven point favourites, which may make sense as the first time they met, the Saints had to rally to win 30-20, helped by three Panther fumbles. Then again, Steve Smith might well dress and play with only one arm. Pick: Saints

THIS SIDE OF PARITY: If Carolina were to win, they would finish 8-8. I feel compelled to point out that it is possible for no fewer than 12 teams to emerge from this weekend with 8-8 records. That would be 37.5 per cent of the league. Having said that, I find there are half a dozen games with compelling story-lines, and that's not counting Green Bay at Arizona, which I fear may descend into final week chaos.

Jacksonville (7-8) at Cleveland (4-11): This is a different-looking game since the shadow of Mike Holmgren turned Jerome Harrison into Jim Brown. Jack Del Rio's team bottled it last week when it counted, so should play very well this week when it doesn't. However, the Browns' two game winning streak came against the Chiefs and Raiders, and the Jags ought to be able to reduce Harrison to mortal status, and maybe Maurice Jones-Drew gets his own Mojo back. Maybe he doesn't. Pick: Browns

JOKER: Chicago (6-9) at Detroit (2-13): Jim Schwartz, so far, is twice as good as Rod Marinelli. Jay Cutler has done a fine impersonation of Interceptaurus Rex, but one OT bomb to Devin Aromashadu last week may make Bear fans forget that. He hopes. You sort of expect the Lions to be more fired up for this one, but still. Pick *shudder*: Bears

Philadelphia (11-4) at Dallas (10-5): The Brawl for it All, if championship of the East is everything. The Eagles will be without center Jamaal Jackson, who's arguably their best lineman, and a great undrafted signing out of nearby Delaware St. Nick Cole probably moves over from guard, but will need help, especially with Jay Ratliff in Pro Bowl form. An Eagle win and Viking loss would give the birds the second seed in the NFC. This is likely to be a game decided by big plays, and Dallas can allow more of them, so it may boil down to how long the Eagles leave McNabb in, and whether Kevin Kolb and Mike Vick can make plays. Pick: Eagles

New England (10-5) at Houston (8-7): The Teasins' are in with a real shot at the playoffs, and the Pats have had trouble stopping teams with good passing games, as well as huge problems winning on the road (1-5 not counting the win in London). Plus, watch for the 'rest em' controversy to spring up around Belichick, since the Pats are very likely to be given to NBC for a playoff game Saturday, meaning they will have a short week to prepare. Pick: Texans

Pittsburgh (8-7) at Miami (7-8): Joey Porter Bowl! The Steelers' Houdini act continues? It's a great matchup of the Steelers' D against the Dolphins' line, but there is no Oriel Cousins for Dick LeBeau to pick on. Miami's receivers won't panic the struggling Steeler secondary, and Ricky Williams may find running difficult. This might be the best match-up of the week. Pick: Dolphins

New Jersey Giants (8-7) at Minnesota (11-4): Which is weirder, Osi Umenyora getting reduced to spot duty, Brandon Jacobs running six times for one yard, or Brad Childress dressed up as a stewardess? If you're old school, put your answers in a glass bottle addressed to Zygi Wilf. This is a horrible game to pick, both teams have nothing to gain but self-respect, but the Vikes are in the playoffs in two weeks. This could be a great match up or one of the ugliest games of the season. Look for Tarvaris Jackson to have trouble with the Giant pass rush in the second half. Pick: Vikes

Atlanta (8-7) at Tampa Bay (3-12): Say, didn't you used to be Michael Spurlock? Winner of the 'What Have You Done For Us Lately' award a couple of seasons ago, Spurlock moved down I3 from the Florida Tuskers to turn in a key punt return that helped beat New Orleans, in much the same way Brad Smith's KOR worked against the Colts. Only the Saints weren't resting guys. Since Atlanta have nothing much to play for, and the Bucs could salvage some self-respect this makes this yet another awkward pick. Let's hope the Falcons practice their special teams this week. Pick: Falcons

Tennessee (7-8) at Seattle (5-10): The Titans' motivation is solely Chris Johnson's record chase, as well as the respectability of a .500 season for Jeff Fisher. The Seahawks motivation is probably to get home as soon as possible and forget about this season and see who takes over the team. Did I really pick them to win their division? Pick: Titans

San Francisco (7-8) at St Louis (1-14): A Boy Named Suh seems like a no-brainer in the draft, especially when you think how Steve Spagnuolo might be able to use him, but the Rams have been drafting defense for a couple of years now with no great success, and they need offensive line, receivers, and a quarterback too. Null & Incognito should be a law firm that specializes in losing cases by improbable means. The Niners disappointed on the road in Seattle. Pick: Rams

Green Bay (10-5) at Arizona (10-5): Matt Bowl! Flynn v Leinart! This is like that Eagles-Bucs game a few years ago when AJ Feeley turned himself into a hot commodity. Except if the Eagles have lost, a win would give the Cards a bye week. This one may come down to who leaves their starters in longer, and given Kurt Warner's injury history and Green Bay's pass-blocking nightmares, it might well be a race to the bench. The Crads have tended to confound the form book this season, although I discovered I'm actually 7-8 picking their games (which is way below the pace). Pick: Cards

Kansas City (3-12) at Denver (8-7): A total fold in December and miss the playoffs? Mike Shanahan could have done that! Somehow I doubt the Broncos will. Pick: Broncos

Baltimore (8-7) at Oakland (5-10): Baltimore are the only other 'win and in' team besides the Jets, which could make the AFC playoff picture a lot clearer by the time we go on air Sunday night. The Ravens seem to be trying to become the Raiders East with their talk of conspiracy theories, though in the case of the penalty against Frank Walker which nullfied Tom Zbikowski's pick, they may have a case: when a QB is scrambling out the pocket a receiver becomes a potential blocker, and if you can't hit him, you can't play D. Pick: Ravens

Washington (4-11) at San Diego (12-3): Norv Turner Bowl! Remember Norv is one of the many coaches Dan Snyder either has fired or will fire (check with Jim Zorn Monday) along his way to dominance of the NFC East. By the way, that was Alan Greenspan sitting behind Saddan Snyder Sunday night, though those stories that what he was eating was Snyder's first-born are cruel and in bad taste. The caricaturist David Levine died this week, and one of his greatest portraits was of Greenspan, with scales of justice hanging from his ears, money in one scale and people in the other. What worries me is that the Chargers have been playing their best football since Jamal Williams went out: all I can surmise is that Jamal wasn't as effective, playing hurt perhaps. I think Philip Rivers is making a very good run at the MVP trophy Peyton Manning had seemed to have sewed up. Who knows what the Chargers will do about this one, but pick: Chargers

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL LIVE ON FIVE: Cincinnati (10-5) at Newark Airport Flightpath Jets (8-7): What's the over/under on passes thrown in this game, 25? The Bengals could well be playing for the third v fourth seed, though I doubt it since the Pats will likely slide into the playoffs, and it isn't the world's most powerful motivation anyway. Thanks to the Colts, pick: Jets

It appears that this game will be our very last on Five, after thirteen years. Of course we said that last season, and look what happened, but the forecast for next year appears to be Super Casino rather than Super Bowl. It's been a great run and, as it happens, I've been the only person working on the show from beginning to end. I've enjoyed it so much I've hardly missed a show in those 13 seasons. Part of my enjoyment has been the football, of course; I've learned a lot about the game doing the programme, mostly how much I don't know. But a larger part has been the people I worked with; too many names to mention but you've seen the hosts come and go, as it were, and you've heard me reference many times any number of producers, associates, cameramen and women, especially when George in VT was the butt of a joke. It's always been fun, even when sleep was short, VT time rushed, and backstage chaotic. What has also been true is that our audience has always been part of the show, and the more involved they became, the more fun the show was. Your feedback has always been appreciated, and that unique participation will be missed. That we came back this season was down in large part to the efforts of Alistair Kirkwood and David Tossell at the NFL and Jamie Aitchinson at Sunset & Vine, and to Robert Charles, the head of sport at Channel Five. Robert was the guy who brought NFL to Five, and has been a great supporter of it for thirteen years. I'm grateful to all these folks for giving me thirteen seasons on air, and to all our viewers who've helped make it so much fun. I won't be going away immediately: we have three playoff highlights shows for the BBC and then of course the Super Bowl live on the BBC as well. After that, we will see, but let's hope for a very happy NFL 2010...

LAST WEEK: 11-5 SEASON: 167-73